Headline metrics
Across 2 historical Kenyan flood seasons (Mar–May 2024 and Mar–May 2018), this system's rule would have flagged emergency-level risk about 21 days before large-scale response is reported to have scaled up.
This is an illustrative estimate from reconstructed rainfall shapes, not a certified validation study. See the step-by-step backtest.
National summary
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How the score works
Every score is rule-based, not a black box. Rainfall over the last 24 hours contributes up to 50 points, measured against that basin's own threshold. Rainfall accumulated over 7 days contributes up to 50 points the same way. Dam and infrastructure status is then compounded on top: a dam reported near capacity adds 10 points, and a dam reported overflowing adds 25 — because downstream communities are exposed regardless of local rainfall. The total is capped at 100 and banded into low (0–24), medium (25–49), high (50–74) and critical (75–100).
Each score stores its own score factors — a list of every factor, the points it contributed, and a plain-language explanation — so any responder can reconstruct exactly why a number changed.