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Kenya

Tana Delta

CriticalLiveCoordination room

Current risk score

Updated 6 days ago

Score breakdown — every point explained

This score is the sum of the factors below. Nothing is hidden.

  • 24-hour rainfall
    27.1 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (60% of threshold)
    +30
  • 7-day rainfall
    276.2 mm over the last 7 days vs threshold 140 mm (197% of threshold)
    +50
  • Dam infrastructure
    Seven Forks (Masinga/Kamburu/Gitaru/Kindaruma/Kiambere) reported overflowing — historical pattern of downstream impact
    +25
Total risk score100

Illustrative Downstream Consideration

Not a forecast

Tana Delta is downstream of the Seven Forks dam system on the Tana River — historically, sustained upstream dam release has preceded elevated risk in downstream areas within the same basin.

Illustrative pattern based on the 2024 event. This system does not model predictive downstream probabilities.

Rainfall trend

24h totals (bars) and 7-day totals (line) vs region thresholds.

Report what you're seeing

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Recent citizen observations

Field reports from citizens on the ground. Anonymous posts hide identity from the public view; admins keep an internal audit trail.

No citizen observations yet.

History of past changes

  • Oct 23, 2026 08:00Critical100Live27.1 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (60% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 07:00Moderate28Live0.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (0% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 06:00Critical100Live27.1 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (60% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 05:00Critical95Live18.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (41% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 04:00Critical95Live18.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (41% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 03:00Critical95Live18.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (41% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 02:00Critical95Live18.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (41% of threshold)
  • Oct 23, 2026 01:00Moderate28Live0.2 mm in the last 24h vs threshold 45 mm (0% of threshold)
Thresholds: 24h 45 mm · 7d 140 mm.
Dam monitoring: Enabled.